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On May 16th, will oil prices undergo a major adjustment, or will they return to the era of 7 yuan?
Views:758 Updated:2023-05-16

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National gas stations will adjust oil prices tonight (May 16th, 24:00). Currently, the 10 working day statistical cycle has been completed for 90% of the time, and we are waiting for the final result tonight. Currently, it is expected that the oil price will decrease by 360 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to an expected decrease of 0.29 yuan/liter to 0.33 yuan/liter. It has far exceeded the red line for lowering oil prices.


As of yesterday, the electronic price of WTI June crude oil futures in the United States fell by 0.49 yuan, a decrease of 0.70%, at a price of 69.55 US dollars per barrel. The London Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell by $0.53, or 0.71%, at a price of $73.64 per barrel.


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In 2023, there have been nine rounds of price adjustments for domestic refined oil products, including three increases, four decreases, and two grounding. The total increase for gasoline was 210 yuan/ton, and the total increase for diesel was 200 yuan/ton.


After this round of price adjustment, the price adjustment situation in 2023 will become "three rises, five falls, and two stalls". If this round is successfully reduced by 30%, there will be a chance for 95 gasoline to return to the "7 yuan era".


International Oil Market News: In this cycle (since April 28th), concerns about macroeconomic recession continue to disturb the market, and international oil prices are operating weakly. The aftermath of the US banking crisis is still lingering. On May 1st, the First Republic Bank of the United States was closed by the California Financial Protection and Innovation Agency and taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, a banking regulatory agency.


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Despite numerous crises, on May 3rd, the Federal Reserve still chose to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points, marking the tenth rate hike since March last year, with a cumulative increase of 500 basis points. Affected by the above factors, investors' concerns about economic recession and weak oil demand have increased, and the prices of risky assets such as crude oil have once again come under pressure. WTI crude oil futures have fallen below $70 per barrel.
The wholesale market has not been boosted by holiday factors recently, and gasoline demand has been running smoothly. However, due to the impact of the summer fishing season, the southern rainy season, and high temperatures in some regions, diesel demand has declined. Coupled with the expected reduction in retail prices of gasoline and diesel, wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel have continued to decline recently, with a significant decrease in diesel prices. According to the wholesale prices of Chinese gasoline and diesel jointly released by China Economic Information Society, China Petroleum Economic and Technological Research Institute, and Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center, on May 12th, the average wholesale prices of 92 # gasoline and diesel (including low pour point) nationwide were 8809 yuan/ton and 7677 yuan/ton, respectively, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton and 145 yuan/ton compared to May 4th (the first working day after the previous round of product oil price adjustment).


Looking ahead to the future, crude oil fundamentals support still exists, and oil prices have temporarily stabilized and turned into volatility. However, macro concerns have not disappeared, and attention should be paid to macro indicators and the performance of financial markets.

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